PREDICTION GAMES

Prediction Games

The most interesting "games" that animals play involve making decisions based on predicting future environments. Animals may be equipped with either genetically coded information or they may learn, based on experience, how to predict environmental change. Examples of contexts in which prediction games may be played include decisions about whether to disperse or remain in a home range. Dispersal has its risks; an animal may not find an adequat new home or may put itself at increased risk for predation while moving. Staying put has its own risks, though. One factor that an animal may be able to predict is food supply. Based on weather, current food supply, and the density of competitors, a fairly accurate picture of future food supply may emerge. One strategy that might emerge from predicted future shortages of food is to encourage other animals to disperse by fighting with them. Another strategy is to for the animal to disperse, itself. Complex calculations of risk and potential benefit will determine the appropriate course of action. Many animals may not have the immediate ability to do these calculations, but many generations of evolution can shape behavior to respond in the correct way to a potentially bleak future.

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